Edward Flattau GOPs Renewable Fiction




Tom Konrad CFA

I sold my position in Exide Technologies (NASD:XIDE)
on April 25th after the company was
forced to shut down its Vernon secondary lead recycling facility
by the California Department of Toxic Substances (DTSC.)  In
addition to the known arsenic furnace emissions, the DTSC cited
the facility’s underground storm water system as
not being in compliance with CA requirements.

When I last
wrote about Exide, I felt that the problems at the Vernon
facility were not as bad as most investors thought.  This
forced shut-down, however, seems like it could be the proverbial
straw which broke the camel’s back.  With the company’s
liquidity already tight, the lack of revenues from the Vernon
facility (in conjunction with the ongoing employee expenses and
the expenses of fixing any problems) could rapidly mount.

On the other hand, they might be able to fix the problems in a
few days, with minimal impact to revenue or cash flow.
Nevertheless, given the company’s existing difficulties, I
feel that the downside risks for shareholders outweigh the
possible gains from a quick resolution.

Only time will tell if this turns out to be a good move on my
part.  Here are a few other factors behind my decision to
consider when you make your own decisions:

  • Management is already under pressure to improve margins and
    cash flow, as well as negotiate with possible lenders the
    refinance debt.  Can they afford the additional distraction
    at Vernon?  Would the problems at Vernon have gotten this
    bad if management had been giving them the attention they
    deserved?
  • Even if Vernon can be reopened promptly, this episode has made
    Lazard’s job of restructuring Exide’s debt harder.  Exide
    needs to restructure its debt or sell significant assets if it
    is to return to a long term sustainable footing.

Given the company’s long term problems, my decision really was,
“Should I sell today, or wait until the company’s next conference
call, in the hope that some good news allows me to get out at a
slightly better price?”

In the end, I decided not to wait, but I admit I don’t have a
high degree of confidence it was the right decision.  We’ll
probably know in a few weeks.

UPDATE

In the week and a half since this was first published, Exide’s
2018 notes have dropped to 65 cents on the dollar, and Exide’s
stock has fallen from $1.03 when I sold it to $0.75 at the close
on May 3rd. So far. getting out looks like a wise, if belated,
decision.

Disclosure: No position in XIDE.

This article was first

published on the author’s Forbes.com blog, Green Stocks
on April 25th.

DISCLAIMER: Past performance
is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future
results.  This article contains the current opinions of the
author and such opinions are subject to change without
notice.  This article has been distributed for
informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain
information contained herein should not be considered as
investment advice or a recommendation of any particular
security, strategy or investment product.  Information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but not guaranteed.

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